Brexit: a 21st century civil war

370 years separates 1649 from 2019, it is said that the past is a foreign country and at first glance to make a comparison between the events of 1649 and last week’s general election seems a bit ridiculous. However, both were watershed moments and the similarities in the political reality are stark and examining what happened during the interregnum could provide an insight to what is next in the saga of British politics.

On 30th January 1649 King Charles I was executed in front of a shocked crowd and with this fatal blow of the axe the monarchy was abolished. Over the next eleven years the British Isles experimented with different forms of government from parliamentary republic to military dictatorship under Cromwell. Last week’s election might not have been an execution but it did mark the end of 3 years of civil war within the UK (well at least England and Wales) and more importantly within the Conservative Party. In many ways the situation the country faces has parallels with the politics of that bitterly cold winter in 1649.

For example, in the run up to Charles I’s trial and execution there was Pride’s Purge. The Army stormed parliament, arrested 41 members of the ‘peace party’ reducing the chamber to the Rump which supported the Army’s plots against the King. It could be argued that the ‘peace party’ was the 17th century equivalent of the moderates of the 2017-2019 Parliament. Some were driven out by their own party during the political turbulence of those years, for example, the eleven MPs that left their parties in February to form Change UK and the twenty one conservatives who were suspended for rebelling against Boris Johnson’s withdrawal agreement. Last week’s election represents the final purge of the MPs who were working to resist Brexit. As with Pride’s Purge we are now left with a relatively homogeneous Parliament which is fully signed up to Brexit. The question that remains is what next?

In England and Wales, the debate at Westminster is over – Brexit has won, just as the Army secured its control over central government the Brexiteers now dominant the wheels of government. How long this will last is uncertain; during the interregnum the new regime struggled to establish its legitimacy and ultimately the public never bought into the idea of England as a republic – by 1660 the monarchy had been restored and remains so. Since Thursday’s result there has been much discussion about whether the Conservative’s landslide represents a shift in the political landscape or a momentary spasm. It is obvious that the once Tory loathing north have lent Boris Johnson their vote for his position on Brexit, whether he can keep it remains to be seen. In the years following the execution of Charles I there was no mass rebellion within England and Wales, however, the Commonwealth and later the Protectorate’s was politically unpopular enough that it was unable to survive the death of its charismatic leader Oliver Cromwell. The restoration was not inevitable, and a return to the political norm of the last 30 years is not inevitable either.

Another parallel is the complex relationship between England, Scotland and Ireland. During the civil wars, the Scottish Presbyterians and English Parliamentarians had formed an alliance in the shape of the Solemn League and Covenant which sought to restore both kingdoms to a godly mode of government. The events of 1649 led to the second and third civil wars, the English New Model Army fought the Scottish Royalists and Covenanters who were dismayed at the execution of Charles I and subsequently crowned his son Charles II. The Scots were eventually defeated and Cromwell imposed military rule to subdue the population. The situation in Ireland was even worse and much debate has been had about whether his actions amounted to genocide. Nevertheless, the campaign was ruthless and the Cromwellian conquest completed the British colonisation of Ireland, which in turn led to centuries of unrest climaxing in the troubles of the late 20th century. In 2019 we have a Scottish population which voted overwhelmingly and consistently to remain, and the impact of Brexit on the Irish peace process has caused a divergence in the union. It is still unclear how this can all be reconciled without a break up of the UK. 

Brexit has resulted in another civil war, not a violent one (hopefully it will never be a military conflict) but a definite political conflict has gripped the nation since 2016. Once again we face a situation where Scotland and Ireland are being forced down a path by an English majority. The civil wars of the 17th century have cast a long shadow over the history of the British Isles, the effects of which can still be seen today. Brexit threatens to be a similar chapter in our history, and as a historian of the 17th century (and particularly the civil wars) I do wonder whether in 2389 a historian will be examining Brexit as I do the events of the civil wars.